...Georgia into the Carolinas and Southern Virginia...
The surface pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature a
low over eastern KY, with a weak frontal boundary extending westward
trough southern MO This surface low should develop towards the
Carolinas through the day, with a trailing cold front slowly moving
east-southeastward across the TN Valley into the central
Appalachians and Southeast through the period.
Air mass downstream of this front will likely feature temperatures
in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s, contributing to
moderate buoyancy by the early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the front as it interacts with this warm and moist
air mass, with some supporting large-scale ascent attendant to the
shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. A predominantly
multicellular storm mode is anticipated, with outflow-dominant
storms contributing to bowing line segments. However, effective bulk
shear is forecast to be around 25 to 35 kt, which could support a
few supercells. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe risk,
but hail is also possible, particularly if any supercells develop.
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